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Abstract

Oman is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the most significant of which are increased temperature, less and more erratic precipitation, see level rise (SLR) and desertification. The objective of this research is to investigate the potential variation of precipitation and temperature in Muscat,
the capital city of Sultanate of Oman in future. We used the MIROC general circulation model (GCM) output (maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for assessing changes in climate in the period of 2080-2099 compared to the baseline period of 1986-2005. The spatial mismatch between GCM grid scale and local scale was resolved by applying the LARS stochastic Weather Generator (WG) model. The results obtained for 4 scenarios indicate a significant warming in future, which ranges from 0.93ᴼC (minimum temperature by 1.1ᴼC and maximum temperature by 0.86ᴼC) for the lowest scenario, RCP 2.6, to 3.1ᴼC (minimum temperature by 3.2ᴼC and maximum temperature by 3.0ᴼC) for the highest one, RCP 8.5, relative to baseline level. The differences in the precipitation projections between the scenarios are much greater compared to consistent warming depicted in temperatures. The results reveal  -36.4% and -36.0% decreases in precipitation for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively, while, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios predict increase in precipitation in a range from 9.6% to 12.5%, respectively during 2080-2099 compared to 1986-2005 period. These results need to be further improved by adopting more GCMs, which will provide potential changes in a consistent.

Article Details

How to Cite
Ghafri, A. A.-, Gunawardhana, L., & Rawas, G. A.-. (2015). An Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation Change Projections in Muscat, Oman from Recent Global Climate Model Simulations. International Journal of Students’ Research in Technology & Management, 2(3), 109-112. Retrieved from https://giapjournals.com/ijsrtm/article/view/120

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